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新加坡国立大学Chew Soo Hong教授特邀报告

发布时间: 2020/10/27 17:34:32     点击次数:次   打印本页

【北航经商大讲堂 第39期】

新加坡国立大学Chew Soo Hong教授特邀报告

题目: Decision Error and Contingent Reasoning

决策误差和权宜推理

主讲人:Chew Soo Hong教授

新加坡国立大学讲席教授

世界计量经济学会院士

主持人:郝壮 助教教授

时间: 2020年10月29日16:00-18:00

地点: 北航新主楼A座618

摘要:

A number of decision-making puzzles each points to some form of choice error which may be attributable to a failure in contingent reasoning. Besides the Allais’ (1953) common-consequence problem and Ellsberg’s (1961) three-color problem, we will discuss the Monty Hall problem, the failure of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism as discussed in Cason-Plott (2014), and the acquiring-a-company problem (Samuelson-Bazerman, 1985) which relates to Akerlof’s (1970) lemons problem and the winner’s curse in common value auctions (Capen, Clapp, and Campbell, 1971; Charness and Levin, 2009). We offer a definition of contingent reasoning which relies on aggregating the contingency-induced choices arising from hypothetical knowledge. This helps shape the design of experiments by adopting a treatment which exposes the decision maker to hypothetical knowledge relating to the situation at hand before making the actual incentivized choices. Results from preliminary studies indicate that our hypothetical knowledge treatment is effective in enhancing the quality of decision making by reducing the incidence of failure in contingent reasoning ex ante. It appears that a hypothetical-knowledge based enhancement of decision making may be applicable to a wide range of settings especially where education and training are involved.

主讲人简介:

周恕弘(Chew Soo Hong),新加坡国立大学讲席教授,世界计量经济学会院士。周恕弘教授是世界著名的实验经济学家和行为经济学家,曾执教于美国亚利桑那大学、约翰·霍普金斯大学、加州大学尔湾分校、香港科技大学等。在Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, PNAS, Economic Journal, Journal of Economic Theory, Management Science等顶级学术期刊上发表大量论文。